Climate change research team steps into the future to meet the challengeA Welsh climate change research ‘time team’ has stepped into the future to help prepare the woodlands of Wales for changing weather patterns.
The FUTUREforest researchers from Aberystwyth were in Catalonia to see how the increasingly extreme and unpredictable changes in climate have impacted on the forests.Already the research team has worrying weather predictions for Wales up to 2050 from Forestry Commission Wales, which runs the FUTUREforest INTERREG IVC partnership project in Wales to share experiences and new methods of environmental management to prepare the forests of Europe for climate change.
They show that within the next 50 years more extreme weather conditions in the Welsh climate may compromise the ability of our native trees to thrive – and could be part of a trend to turn our woodlands towards a more Mediterannean type of forest similar to that in northern Spain.
Forest Research Wales Head of Unit Hugh Evans and his colleague Dr Anna Brown (FR Tree Health Division) joined specialists from the other six partner regions - Auvergne, France (biodiversity); Brandenburg, Germany (knowledge transfer); Bulgaria (soil protection); Catalonia (natural risks); Latvia (timber production); Slovakia (carbon sequestration) and Wales (water management) for a three day fact finding visit to see the challenges the Catalonians are facing.
Forests across Europe deliver multiple economic, environmental and social benefits, including timber and non-timber products, biodiversity, local climate regulation, soil protection, water management and a healthy environment.
And in the hillsides around Girona, they found that the increase in drought conditions, violent storms which cause flash floods, high winds and freak hail storms are taking their toll.
The unusually high temperatures and lack of rain have led to severe wildfires which have destroyed thousands of hectares of forest in the uplands.
And the swing from drought to flood has put stress on the trees, which has made them more susceptible to attack from pests and pathogens.
“Our research in Wales suggests that over the next 50 years we are going to see a major change in our weather, which is going to impact on choice of tree species for the future and on how well our native trees will cope with the changing climate,” said Dr Evans.
“Our colleagues in Forestry Commission Wales are already beginning to plan for this change, looking at how they manage their woodlands so that they will continue to provide the benefits to industry and society as a whole.
“So it was important to see for ourselves the challenges that these new woodlands could provide, and while the Catalonian forests are not identical to how we expect ours to develop, they do give a valuable insight into some of the future forests that we could be facing,” he said.
In south Wales the expectation is that, under a high emissions scenario for 2050, accumulated annual temperatures during the growing season of the tree will rise significantly by around 40% from 1800 to 2500 day-degrees, the accumulated warmth of a particular year's growing season for a specific area.
Moisture deficit - a measure of annual rainfall - could increase from the current baseline of 180 mm to in excess of 220 mm. Warmer temperatures will be accompanied by increased summer droughts.
“There is still some uncertainty about the degree of change that will occur, but whichever climate change trajectory we eventually follow, we can be sure it will be warmer in the future, with a warmer and longer growing season,” said Dr Evans.
Computer generated maps show how the changes will begin to affect the forests, making it more difficult for our traditional woodlands to thrive.
“Our research programmes are geared to helping forest and woodland owners to plan ahead, looking at the trees that we plant now to make sure that they will be able to cope with the changing weather conditions in the future,” said Dr Evans.
And the FUTUREforest project is helping to shortcut that process, by sharing knowledge and information so that Forestry Commission Wales can benefit from the lessons learned by Catalonian foresters.
“Our aim over the next three years is to build on the success of the European forest sector and to provide vital information which can guide our policy makers towards ensuring they can use this knowledge to contribute to playing an even greater role in climate change mitigation,” said project manager Mike Over of Forestry Commission Wales, which is running the FUTUREforest project in Wales.
“In Wales we are already planning ahead for the predicted shift in weather patterns and, by taking examples of best practice from our regional partners, we can gain from their valuable experience,” he added.
Wildfires in Catalonia in 2004 forced the region’s forestry sector to think again about its fire control policy. In the past both fire services and the local population were put at risk as they chased the fires that developed.
Now they are planning ahead, using computer modeling of wind directions coupled with detailed research into where and when fires have started over the last 20 years or so to help identify which areas of forest are at risk.
Carefully identified fire breaks have been created, with 50 per cent of the mainly cork oak trees being felled and the undergrowth cleared to control the fires and allow them to blow themselves out.
The additional stress of unusually low rainfall has caused more problems for cork production – the main money maker from forestry in the area – caused by an increase in pests and pathogens.
These bugs eat into the valuable cork itself – causing damage which reduces the value of the product and reduces profits for the region’s foresters.
Working with forest owners, the regional government has been testing new ways of dealing with the influx, from the use of pesticides to careful management of the undergrowth around the trees.
“Whilst the idea of cork trees on the Welsh hills is a long way off, the lessons being learned about the effect of climate change on trees provide a valuable pointer to the kinds of challenges we will be facing,” Mike Over added
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